White Sox vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 Betting Pick

The final spot in the LCS is up for grabs in Cleveland on Saturday.

The Guardians and White Sox play Game 5 of the ALDS at Progressive Field and every ounce of momentum is with the home team.

The road team has captured each of the first four matchups, capped off by the Guardians winning Games 3 and 4 in Chicago.

The winner faces Tampa Bay in the ALCS, as Cleveland seeks its second ALCS appearance since grabbing the pennant in 2016. Chicago looks to advance to the ALCS for the first time since winning the World Series in 2005.

We’ll break down two plays for the Saturday action. Remember to monitor the odds throughout the day, as the props, sides, and totals market are constantly changing.

Here are the free MLB picks for Saturday, October 10.

Best MLB plays today

• White Sox (+114) at Guardians
• Guardians CF Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)

White Sox (+114) at Guardians

Backing Chicago here is not about riding the trend of the road team going 4-0 so far in this series. The Sox held the Guardians to three runs in the first two wins, but allowed nine runs in each of the two home losses.

Gavin Williams gets the ball in the pivotal Game 5 for Cleveland after closing out Game 4 with a scoreless inning. The right-hander struck out 11 batters in five innings of Game 2, but also allowed two runs, as Chicago rallied for a 4-3 victory.

Sean Burke counters for Chicago after tossing 5.1 innings of relief in Game 2, allowing one hit and striking out six batters. The Sox improved to 9-1 in Burke’s last 10 appearances, including five road victories.

Despite Cleveland’s 18-run outburst in the last two games, the Guardians are batting .214 in this series and that number drops to .115 at home.

Let’s go with the underdog White Sox here to finish off the Game 5 win and advance to face the Rays in the ALCS.

Guardians CF Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Kwan has yet to reach two total bases in a game in the ALDS, but has picked up a hit in each of the last three games. In 15 career at-bats against Burke, Kwan has compiled four hits, but three of them have been for extra bases (two doubles and a triple).

The one thing Kwan succeeds at is hitting against right-handed pitching, posting a .300 average, while that number jumps to .390 in the last 20 games. Also in this 20-game stretch, Kwan’s xwOBA sits a scorching .399 against righties.

In Burke’s past 10 outings, he is allowing left-handed batters to hit .267. Cleveland needs a strong start tonight and will depend on its leadoff man to set the table. 

Kwan is capable of picking up two hits tonight or at least one extra-base hit.